What will the world be like in 2500 AD?

With oil prices hovering above $60 a barrel for more than a year, the question of an impending energy crisis looms large. However, I am not the one who believes in the doomsday scenario that some energy pundits are predicting. For somebody who worked in the oil industry back in late 90s when oil industry was in the midst of a recession with oil at $12/barrel, I believe that the current price of oil is more a reflection of short-term supply-demand distortion than anything else. But this crisis raises an important question: What happens when the world runs out of the non-renewal energy resources such as oil and gas? Will the global economy collapse due to unsustainable energy prices leading to widespread social-geo political conflicts? Will science/technology come to our rescue? As we look into the future, the world would have either successfully resolved the energy/resource issue or not. So what will be the world like in 2500 AD?

One scenario is that the world is unable to successfully resolve this energy/resource problem. In such a grim case, the future could play out as described in Jared Diamond's intriguing book - "Collapse". Under this scenario, the world would have consumed all the earth's resources in few centuries. With no other place to go, the humans get involved in a widespread conflict to gain access over available resources. This scenario supposes that in the future space travel does not lead to discovery of another habitable planet or even if it does the cost to transport humans is prohibitive. With everyone looking out for themselves the world as we know it descends into survival of the fittest few and even cannibalism. In this scenario the world in 2500 AD is a deserted place with few surviving humans, if any, scrapping their life together from the remaining depleted resources.

The other scenario is that of history repeating itself. History is replete with examples of the rise and fall of civilization - such as the Harappan in Indian subcontinent, Incas in Peru, Mayan in North America, Shang dynasty in China, Egyptian civilization and more recent Roman civilization. Each of these civilizations lasted few centuries and led to a better standard of living for its citizens than ever before. However, each of these civilizations degenerated over time. We are fortunate to be born in yet another great civilization - call it whatever - the science civilization/western civilization - only posterity will name it. Under this scenario, the rise of this modern civilization that started in 1600s will peak in few centuries just like others. Nobody knows when this will happen and what will lead to its fall - an impending energy/resource crisis is a possible explanation. As the world uses up its scare energy/resource, the cost of such resources skyrocket leading to perennial economic depression/recession. Under such a scenario, the world in 2500 AD would look more like a third world country today.


The third scenario is more optimistic. In this scenario, the world is able successfully resolve the energy/resource crisis with the help of science and technology. The world gets smart in how it uses its resources. This leads to an even better standard of living for all its citizens in coming years and not just in few developed countries as is today. I hope that this is the scenario that plays out.

On separate note: Recently read a good article on Indian express from India's ex-oil minister Mani Sankar Aiyar. http://www.indianexpress.com/full_story.php?content_id=88522. He describes steps India is taking/needs to take to secure its energy future.